IMPACT OF POPULATION GROWTH ON UNEMPLOYMENT IN NIGERIA
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IMPACT OF
POPULATION GROWTH ON UNEMPLOYMENT IN NIGERIA
CHAPTER ONE
INTRODUCTION
1.1 Background to the Study
As the
twenty –first century began, the world’s population was estimated to be almost
6.1 billion people. Projections by the United Nations placed the figure at more
than 9.2 billon by the year 2050 before reaching a maximum of 11 billion by
2200. Over 90% of that population will inhabit the developing world (Todaro and
Smith, 2006).
Two thousand
years ago population growth and production were positively correlated. More
people meant greater productivity and security. The current modernization and
technological advancement of today’s world is highly attributable to centuries
of rapid population growth and economic expansion. Hundreds of years ago, when
societies and economies initially began to flourish, success was dependent upon
a productive agricultural sector. A growing population meant more workers and
laborers who would increase overall output. With more productive labor, the
economy inevitably expanded and society reaped the financial benefits
(Tartiyus, Dauda and Peter, 2015).
Centuries
ago, population booms were positive indications of the potential for long term
economic growth. High fertility rates during these times allowed for increased
labourers and also helped overcome the correspondingly exorbitant death rates.
The combined effects of “famine, disease, malnutrition, plague and war”
resulted in death rates that were high and inconsistent. Given the lack of
modern medicine that many countries faced until recently, death rates remained
relatively elevated for several centuries. Thus, in order to have any net
population growth and eventual economic development, fertility rates had to be elevated
(Latimer and Kulkarni, 2008).
After the
independence in 1960, a successful population census was carried out in Nigeria
in 1964, which an estimated population of 55.6 million people was taken into
account. Since then, it became obvious that Nigeria’s population was leading to
a rapid population growth. In 1991, a population census was held and the
country’s population increased to an approximated 88.5 million people. The
analysis helped the National Development Planning to gain more insight and enable
them to improve and develop more on their policies and planning (Evans, 2011).
The UNDP reported in 2007 that the Nigerian population continuously increased
at 3% per annum with birth rate of 40 per 1,000 and also a death rate of 15 per
1,000 (Gideon, 2016). It was also estimated that an educated Nigerian woman
gives birth to a lesser number of 3 children compared to an average Nigerian
woman who gives birth to 6 children in her lifetime. From analysis of the past
census and reports, it is evident that the population has been rapidly growing
at a high rate of 250% from 1964 to present. This makes it problematic to match
the population growth rate and development of the country (Evans, 2011).
Nigeria at
present has the highest population in Africa and the 10th in the world. It was
reported that the Nigerian population is associated with three factors namely;
fertility, migration and mortality. It was noticed that the population growth
increases at 3% which implies a doubling time of 22years (Gideon, 2016). This
also means that the country is growing at a geometric progression. The problem
with this is the capacity of the country’s economy to also grow proportionately
that it will cope and accommodate the increased population. The low mortality
of 14 per 1,000 decreased infant mortality rate and higher life expectancy
signifies a problem because it indicates a higher chance of survival (Evans,
2011).
Unemployment
rate can either increase or decrease proportionately with respect to population
growth or decline. Invariably, the increase in unemployment rate could be
related to population growth especially in developing economies like Nigeria.
Therefore, the need to checkmating unemployment rate to assuage its effects on
Nigerian economy cannot be overemphasized. The Central Bank of Nigeria (cited
in Orumie, 2016) defined unemployment rate as the percentage of persons among
the labour force (15-65 years) excluding students and those medically unfit
available for work but do not find work. Gbosi (2005) noted that the Nigeria’s
rising rate of unemployment portends great concern not only to the
policy-makers, but the society as well, and that the rate at which population
grows influences economic growth and consequently the Gross Domestic Product.
The rate of
unemployment in Nigeria is unimaginably growing amidst alarming economic
recession while population growth is on the increase. If not checked, this duo
tyrant can pose devastating effects on the nation’s future economy.
Therefore
this study seeks to investigate the impact of population growth on unemployment
in Nigeria.
1.2 Statement of the Problem
Rapid
population growth in Nigeria is equally associated with unemployment with
figures ranging from 17 percent per annum for the entire population to 60
percent for the youths because job opportunities are fewer than the number
seeking for them, and stagnating economic performance because a large
proportion of available resources is consumed instead of being invested to
generate growth. In addition, rapid population growth poses continuous pressure
on resource, particularly on agricultural land. For instance, due to high
density of people in the Eastern states as much as 53 percent of the farming
populations cultivate less than 0.4 hectares in a given year and in the more
congested areas of those states most farmers cultivates only 0.2 hectares per
year.
Furthermore,
with rising population growing at geometric proportion relative to job
placement that is growing at arithmetic progression, it became obvious that the
nation’s formal education is fuelling unemployment, crime and cycle of poverty
as graduates could not be absorbed.
The problem
of unemployment is a problem that has been evident in Nigeria. In Nigeria,
streets are scattered with bike riders and hawkers with an average level of
education who would have secured employment or exhibit their skills and
resources if there are suitable environments and structures that encourage
such. This situation has moved the attention of unemployed youths to cybercrime
which is commonly known as 419 (Uddin and Uddin, 2013).
Hence, the
undertaking of this study seeks to investigate the impact of population growth
on unemployment in Nigeria.
1.3 Aim and Objectives of the Study
The aim of
the study is to investigate the impact of population growth on unemployment in
Nigeria. The specific objectives are:
i.
To examine the impact of population growth rate on unemployment in
Nigeria.
ii. To investigate the causal
relationship between population growth and economic development in Nigeria.
iii. To find out the current economic
challenges for managing population growth in Nigeria.
1.4 Research Questions
This study
will be guided be the following research questions:
i. What is the impact of population
growth rate on unemployment in Nigeria?
ii. What is the causal
relationship between population growth and economic development in Nigeria?
iii. What are the current economic
challenges for managing population growth in Nigeria?
1.5 Research Hypotheses
The
researcher intends to test the following hypotheses:
Hypothesis
1:
Ho: There is no significant relationship between
population growth rate and
unemployment in Nigeria.
HI:There is
a significant relationship between population growth rate and unemployment in Nigeria.
Hypothesis
2:
Ho: There is no significant causal
relationship between population growth and economic growth in Nigeria.
HI: There is a significant causal
relationship between population growth and economic growth in Nigeria.
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