EVALUATION OF THE IMPACT OF INFLATION ON NIGERIA STOCK MARKET RETURNS (A CASE STUDY OF ROAD TRANSPORT SECTOR OF NIGERIA)
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EVALUATION OF THE IMPACT OF INFLATION ON NIGERIA STOCK MARKET
RETURNS (A CASE STUDY OF ROAD TRANSPORT SECTOR OF NIGERIA)
CHAPTER ONE
INTRODUCTION
1.1 Background of
the Study
The stock market is a common feature of a modern economy and
it is reputed to perform functions that promote the growth and development of
the economy. The market is an economic institution; which promotes efficiency
in capital formation and allocation. It enables governments and industry to
raise long-term capital for financing new projects, and expanding and
modernizing industrial and commercial concerns. Investment in the stock market
is long term in nature; hence any development that could affect the stability
of the polity or economy usually has serious impact on the performance of the
stock market. Corrado and Jordan (2002) identify inflationary rate amongst
others as a factor that could influence the market performance. Economists have
long recognized inflation as one of the major factors that could derail the
economy of any country. In Nigeria, the problem of inflation has caused the
monetary authority to seek remedies on a continual basis. Therefore, studying
the impact of macroeconomic factors such as the rate of inflation on stock
market performance has implications for investors and policy makers. The stock
market performance influences the performance of the economy vice versa.
According to Alile (1997), the central objective of the stock exchange
worldwide remains the maintenance of the efficient market with attendant
benefit of economic growth. In recent times there was a growing concern on the
role of stock market in economic growth (Levine and Zervos, 1996; Demirguc-Kunt
and Levine, 1996; Oyejide, 1994; Nyong, 1997; Obadan, 1998; Onosode, 1998;
Emenuga, 1998; Osinubi, 1998). The stock market is of interest to economists
and policy makers because of the perceived benefits to the economy.The stock
market serves as a veritable tool in the mobilization and allocation of savings
among competing uses which are critical to the growth and efficiency of the
economy.
1.2 Statement of the
Problem
Studies by DeGregorio (1992); Fischer (1993); Barro (1995);
and Bruno and Easterly (1995) uncover a significant negative correlation
between inflation and the growth performance of various economies. This paper
investigates the empirical association between inflation and the performance of
the stock market in Nigeria; to establish statistical association between
inflation and various stock market performance measures. Evidence regarding
this relationship in Nigeria seems scarce in the literature. It is in the light
of this that the detailed nature of the empirical linkages between inflation
and the various measures of stock market performance in Nigeria is being
undertaken.
1.2 Objectives of
the Study
The objectives of this study include but not limited to;
To ascertain the
correlation between inflation and the total value of listed shares in the
Nigerian stock market.
To know whether
there is any correlation between stock market liquidity and inflation.
To determine the
impact of inflation on the performance and condition of the stock market.
To highlight the
correlation between inflation and the turnover ratio of the Nigerian stock
market.
1.4 Research
Questions
In the paper the issues for determination are as follows:
What is the
correlation between inflation and the total value of listed shares in the
Nigerian stock market?
Is there any
correlation between stock market liquidity and inflation?
Does inflation
impact positively on the performance and condition of the stock market?
What is the
correlation between inflation and the turnover ratio of the Nigerian stock
market?
1.5 Research
Hypotheses
Ho: There is no negative statistical association between
stock market returns measures of the Nigerian stock market and inflation.
Hi:There is a negative statistical association between stock
market returns measures of the Nigerian stock market and inflation.
1.6 Significance of
the Study
The performance of the stock market is of utmost importance
to investors, policy makers and the likes. The measures of stock market
performance include market capitalization; which measures stock market size,
stock market liquidity which refers to the ability of investors to buy and sell
securities easily. Others are All Share Index; which reflects the performance
and condition of the stock market, and the turnover ratio; which is an index of
comparison for market liquidity rating and level of transaction costs. In
Nigeria, inflation rates have persistently been two digits; this has been an
issue confronting policy makers, investors, analysts and economists. It is one
of the major factors that could derail the economy of any nation. The stock
market which also contributes to economic growth will invariably be affected by
inflation, hence the need for this paper.
1.7 Scope/Limitations
of the Study
This study is to evaluate the impact of inflation on Nigeria
Stock Market Returns using Road Transport Sector of Nigeria as a case study.
Limitations of Study
1. Financial Constraint- Insufficient fund
tends to impede the efficiency of the researcher in sourcing for the relevant
materials, literature or information and in the process of data collection
(internet, questionnaire and interview).
2. Time Constraint- The researcher will
simultaneously engage in this study with other academic work. This consequently
will cut down on the time devoted for the research work.
1.8 Definition of
Terms
Stock Market:Is the market in which shares of publicly held
companies are issued and traded either through exchanges or over-the-counter
markets.It is a place where shares of pubic listed companies are traded
Inflation: is the rate at which the general level of prices
for goods and services is rising and, consequently, the purchasing power of
currency is falling. It is a general increase in prices and fall in the
purchasing value of money.
Regression Model:Is a statistical process for estimating the
relationships among variables. It includes many techniques for modeling and
analyzing several variables, when the focus is on the relationship between a
dependent variable and one or more independent variables.
Economic Development:
Refers to the sustained, concerted actions of communities and policymakers
that improve the standard of living and economic health of a specific locality.
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